Copper

The CRU World Copper Conference is being held in Chile today. Mining participants may revise downwards their expectations for future global copper supply, creating a bullish atmosphere for funds. Last week's continuous rise in domestic spot premiums and decline in inventories also indicate this trend. However, it is understood that short-term copper mine supply is not an issue, coupled with weak consumption, copper prices may continue to seek a bottom in the second quarter. In terms of operation, it is advisable to sell short on rebounds. Views are for reference only.

Aluminum

Meanwhile, some traders' bulk purchases have reversed the weak trend of Shanghai aluminum, resulting in spot discounts still ranging from (discount) 100 to (discount) 60 yuan/ton, but it is evident that the risk of forcing positions in the 1504 contract has decreased. From a fundamental perspective, with the completion of the 1504 delivery, the expansion of spot discounts is likely inevitable. At the same time, the deterioration of fundamentals, including the absence of exports and domestic production cuts, will make it difficult for aluminum prices to rebound. It is still recommended to sell short at the 13,500 yuan/ton level. The strength of LME aluminum may present an opportunity to buy farther-out contracts.

Zinc

The short-term improvement in zinc demand is expected to continue, and the certainty of supply contraction expectations is further strengthened, which may consolidate the uptrend. Due to low inventory levels, LME zinc is less susceptible to supply shocks. At the same time, investors are starting to focus on the certain supply contraction by 2017 and may position themselves in advance. It is still recommended to hold long positions and add positions near 16,200 yuan/ton on dips.

Lead

Constrained by declining lead inventories and a continued rise in canceled warehouse receipts indicating strong consumption, lead prices continue to strengthen. In China, maintenance at lead smelters in the main delivery region of South China may lead to tight warehouse receipts, potentially evolving into a forced position situation. Shanghai lead futures hit the daily limit up on Friday. However, overall, the oversupply situation in lead is unlikely to change, and the rally is only short-term. In the short term, it is advisable to enter long positions and appropriately close out positions based on the resumption of production at smelters after delivery.

Nickel

BHP's Colombian nickel mine may go on strike on the 14th. Affected by this news, nickel prices rose in the late trading session on Friday but have not yet recovered from the impact of significantly lower costs due to the sharp decline in nickel ore prices. From the perspective of cost reduction, nickel prices have limited downside potential in the future, and current prices are close to the bottom. At the same time, the certain contraction in supply may lead to a widening supply gap, and the current structure of spot premiums is not favorable for shorts. Therefore, it is still recommended to wait and observe before buying at low levels or to hold a position of buying LME nickel and selling Shanghai nickel.