On April 10th, copper prices continued to fluctuate upwards during the day but surged and then retreated at night, experiencing wide swings. London copper for March closed at 6,020pertononthatday,up24.5 per ton or 0.41% from April 10th (comparing with the previous close, assuming a typo here for clarity); Shanghai copper futures contract 1506 closed at 43,530 yuan per ton in the afternoon of the 10th, up 220 yuan per ton or 0.51% from the previous day; the night session closed at 43,470 yuan per ton, down 60 yuan per ton from the day session but up 170 yuan per ton from the previous night session.

On the macro front, during the night of last Friday, the Fed released March non-farm payrolls data that significantly missed expectations, with the unemployment rate also performing poorly. The manufacturing workforce declined for the first time since July 2013, and the labor force participation rate hit its lowest level since 1978. Affected by this shock, the US dollar index suddenly plunged and continued to decline on Monday. The unexpected deterioration in March's US employment data also led the market to postpone its expectations for Fed rate hikes, with some institutions believing it may be delayed until the third or fourth quarter.

Medium-term logic: The overall weakness remains the core judgment, with fundamental weaknesses continuing to intensify, especially as inventory data continues to increase. The main reason for the complex market structure in the second half of 2014 was low inventory plus high premiums, which constrained the downward movement of copper prices. Currently, the continuous increase in inventories is exerting significant pressure on copper prices. However, from the long-term supply and demand perspective, the expectations and main factors for a shift from balance to surplus have not yet undergone significant changes. In addition, the US dollar index may exert pressure on copper prices again in the future.

Strategy: Recently, due to extreme weather, the operations of Los Bronces and Salvador copper mines in Chile have been affected to varying degrees, and Cochilco has also revised down its expectations for Chilean copper production this year. Currently, clean copper concentrate TC has dropped to 90−95perdrymetricton,andTCquotesforsomecomplexoreshavealsodeclinedto120 per dry metric ton, indicating that the current concentrate supply is still insufficient compared to the previous period, with a shortage of clean ore supply. As copper prices have performed strongly recently, holders have shown signs of holding prices and reluctance to sell, leading to a decrease in supply, while downstream enterprises continue to purchase as needed. It is expected that copper prices will continue to fluctuate within a range this week, with attention on the support level of 43,000 yuan per ton.

Regarding premiums and discounts, the spot premium for copper continued to widen, reaching 80 yuan per ton on April 10th; LME spot premiums and discounts fell to around 17pertononApril10th;andUSfree−marketspotpremiumsremainedat137.5 per ton.

In terms of inventories, LME inventories on April 9th were 330,050 tons, a decrease of 75 tons from the previous trading day; COMEX inventories on April 10th were 25,357 tons, a decrease of 259 tons from the previous trading day; and Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories on April 10th showed 240,775 tons, a decrease of 5,881 tons from the previous week.

In terms of positions, LME copper positions for March on April 10th were 379,330 lots, a decrease of 3,725 lots from the previous trading day. The main Shanghai copper futures contract held 375,940 lots on April 10th, a decrease of 3,328 lots from the previous trading day. According to the CFTC copper position report, as of the week ending April 7th, non-commercial long positions in copper were 58,765 lots, non-commercial short positions were 63,761 lots, resulting in a non-commercial net short position of 4,996 lots, an increase of 671 net short positions from the previous week.